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03 · insight

Trust the model,
not just run it.

Score it, diagnose it, explain it, calibrate its probabilities, and flag the weird rows — the tools that turn a fitted model into one you can defend.

Evaluate, diagnose, explain

Metrics, VIF, SHAP, figures.

Any predictor scores itself on a labelled set (core). explain adds SHAP and permutation importance; diagnostics adds OLS VIF / residuals / influence; viz renders self-contained SVGs (a pure-Rust backend, no system fonts).

let mut rf = RandomForest::new().n_trees(60);
rf.fit(&train)?;
print!("{}", rf.evaluate(&test)?);   // accuracy / precision / recall / F1

// explain (feature = "explain")
let shap = rf.explain(&Explainer::kernel().nsamples(80), test.features())?;
let perm = permutation_importance(&rf, &test, 8, 0)?;

// diagnostics (feature = "diagnostics") · viz (feature = "viz")
let diag = Diagnostics::of(&reg)?;
println!("R² = {:.4}, VIF = {:?}", diag.r_squared(), diag.vif());
let auc = viz::roc_svg(test.target(), &scores, "roc.svg", (520, 420))?;

cargo run --example insight --features "diagnostics explain viz"

Calibration

Probabilities that mean what they say.

With calibration, wrap any ProbaPredictor (a LogisticRegression, or a soft vote's class-vote shares) in a CalibratedClassifier — itself a ProbaPredictor, so it composes. Fit the calibrator on a held-out set.

let mut clf = LogisticRegression::new();
clf.fit(&train)?;

let calibrated = CalibratedClassifier::isotonic(clf).fit(&holdout)?;   // or ::platt(..)
let probs = calibrated.predict_proba(&test)?;

// check calibration directly: predicted vs. observed, per bin
let curve = reliability_curve(&probs.column(1), test.target(), 10);
Anomaly

Spot the rows that don't belong.

With anomaly, Mahalanobis (covariance-aware distance) and KnnScore (k-th nearest-neighbour distance) score each row unsupervised — higher is more anomalous. Both implement a shared OutlierDetector trait, so they're interchangeable.

let mut m = Mahalanobis::new();     // or KnnScore::new(k)
m.fit(&x)?;
let scores = m.score(&x)?;          // higher = more anomalous
let flags = m.is_outlier(&x, 3.0)?;

cargo run --example trust --features "calibration anomaly"

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